Working paper
On not evaluating economic models by forecast outcomes
- Abstract:
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Even in scientific disciplines, forecast failures occur. Four possible states of nature (a model is good or bad, and it forecasts well or badly) are examined using a forecast-error taxonomy, which traces the many possible sources of forecast errors. This analysis shows that a valid model can forecast badly, and a poor model can forecast successfully. Delineating the main causes of forecast failure reveals transformations that can correct failure without alt...
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- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Reviewed (other)
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(Version of record, pdf, 125.9KB)
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Authors
Bibliographic Details
- Publisher:
- University of Oxford Publisher's website
- Series:
- Department of Economics: Discussion Paper
- Publication date:
- 2011-02-01
- Source identifiers:
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1070400
Item Description
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
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pubs:1070400
- UUID:
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uuid:f3f372e6-3af6-4c62-8f61-e44966476a16
- Local pid:
- pubs:1070400
- Deposit date:
- 2019-11-07
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Department of Economics
- Copyright date:
- 2011
- Notes:
- © Department of Economics 2011
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