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On not evaluating economic models by forecast outcomes

Abstract:

Even in scientific disciplines, forecast failures occur. Four possible states of nature (a model is good or bad, and it forecasts well or badly) are examined using a forecast-error taxonomy, which traces the many possible sources of forecast errors. This analysis shows that a valid model can forecast badly, and a poor model can forecast successfully. Delineating the main causes of forecast failure reveals transformations that can correct failure without alt...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Reviewed (other)

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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
SSD
Department:
Economics
Oxford college:
Magdalen College
Role:
Author
Publisher:
University of Oxford Publisher's website
Series:
Department of Economics: Discussion Paper
Publication date:
2011-02-01
Source identifiers:
1070400
Keywords:
Pubs id:
pubs:1070400
UUID:
uuid:f3f372e6-3af6-4c62-8f61-e44966476a16
Local pid:
pubs:1070400
Deposit date:
2019-11-07

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