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Grand European and Asian-Pacific multi-model seasonal forecasts: maximization of skill and of potential economical value to end-users

Abstract:

Multi-model ensembles (MMEs) are powerful tools in dynamical climate prediction as they account for the overconfidence and the uncertainties related to single-model ensembles. Previous works suggested that the potential benefit that can be expected by using a MME amplifies with the increase of the independence of the contributing Seasonal Prediction Systems. In this work we combine the two MME Seasonal Prediction Systems (SPSs) independently developed by the European (ENSEMBLES) and by the As...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1007/s00382-017-3766-y

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Publisher:
Springer Berlin Heidelberg Publisher's website
Journal:
Climate Dynamics Journal website
Volume:
50
Issue:
7-8
Pages:
2719–2738
Publication date:
2017-06-28
Acceptance date:
2017-06-09
DOI:
EISSN:
1432-0894
ISSN:
0930-7575
Source identifiers:
710557
Keywords:
Pubs id:
pubs:710557
UUID:
uuid:b469a38f-a347-431f-99ac-862e93c8c3c3
Local pid:
pubs:710557
Deposit date:
2017-11-23

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