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Evaluation of the skill of North-American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) Global Climate Models in predicting average and extreme precipitation and temperature over the continental USA

Abstract:

This paper examines the forecasting skill of eight Global Climate Models from the North-American Multi-Model Ensemble project (CCSM3, CCSM4, CanCM3, CanCM4, GFDL2.1, FLORb01, GEOS5, and CFSv2) over seven major regions of the continental United States. The skill of the monthly forecasts is quantified using the mean square error skill score. This score is decomposed to assess the accuracy of the forecast in the absence of biases (potential skill) and in the presence of conditional (slope reliab...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1007/s00382-016-3286-1

Authors


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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
SSD
Department:
SOGE
Sub department:
Geography
Oxford college:
Hertford College
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0001-9416-488X
More from this funder
Funding agency for:
Villarini, G
Grant:
G11 AP20079
Publisher:
Springer Verlag Publisher's website
Journal:
Climate Dynamics Journal website
Pages:
1-16
Publication date:
2016-08-04
Acceptance date:
2016-07-18
DOI:
EISSN:
1432-0894
ISSN:
0930-7575
Source identifiers:
640141
Keywords:
Pubs id:
pubs:640141
UUID:
uuid:51269925-33a3-42fc-b523-90be922de1a1
Local pid:
pubs:640141
Deposit date:
2018-09-16

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