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Atmospheric seasonal forecasts of the twentieth century: Multi-decadal variability in predictive skill of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their potential value for extreme event attribution

Abstract:

Based on skill estimates from hindcasts made over the last couple of decades, recent studies have suggested that considerable success has been achieved in forecasting winter climate anomalies over the Euro-Atlantic area using current-generation dynamical forecast models. However, previous-generation models had shown that forecasts of winter climate anomalies in the 1960s and 1970s were less successful than forecasts of the 1980s and 1990s. Given that the more recent decades have been dominate...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1002/qj.2976

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Institution:
University of Oxford
Oxford college:
University College
Role:
Author
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Physics
Sub department:
Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
Role:
Author
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Physics
Sub department:
Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
Role:
Author
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Physics
Sub department:
Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
Role:
Author
Publisher:
Wiley Publisher's website
Journal:
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Journal website
Volume:
143
Issue:
703
Pages:
917–926
Publication date:
2016-12-01
Acceptance date:
2016-12-01
DOI:
EISSN:
1477-870X
ISSN:
0035-9009
Source identifiers:
680550
Keywords:
Pubs id:
pubs:680550
UUID:
uuid:1ae1b260-8b09-4016-9d3a-d79212519f2e
Local pid:
pubs:680550
Deposit date:
2017-03-01

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