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A simple pedagogical model linking initial-value reliability with trustworthiness in the forced climate response

Abstract:

Using a simple pedagogical model, it is shown how information about the statistical reliability of initial-value ensemble forecasts can be relevant in assessing the trustworthiness of the climate system’s response to forcing.

Although the development of seamless prediction systems is becoming increasingly common, there is still confusion regarding the relevance of information from initial-value forecasts for assessing the trustworthiness of the climate system’s response to forcing....

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0240.1

Authors


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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS Division
Department:
Physics; Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
Role:
Author
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Physics
Sub department:
Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
Oxford college:
University College
Role:
Author
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Funding agency for:
Palmer, T
Grant:
291406
More from this funder
Funding agency for:
Weisheimer, A
Grant:
607085
Publisher:
American Meteorological Society Publisher's website
Journal:
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Journal website
Volume:
March 2018
Pages:
605-614
Publication date:
2017-10-19
DOI:
EISSN:
1520-0477
ISSN:
0003-0007
Source identifiers:
794851
Pubs id:
pubs:794851
UUID:
uuid:0d516c0d-7871-4bcf-9466-b0ced7677397
Local pid:
pubs:794851
Deposit date:
2017-11-22

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