Multi-sector inflation forecasting – quarterly models for South Africa.
|Abstract||Inflation is a far from homogeneous phenomenon, a fact often neglected in modeling consumer price inflation. Using a novel methodology grounded in theory, the ten sub-components of the consumer price index (excluding mortgage interest rates), are modeled separately and forecast, four-quarters-ahead. Equilibrium correction models in a rich multivariate form employ general and sectoral information, and take account of structural breaks and institut ... [truncated at 450 characters in length]|
|Author||Janine Aron; John N. J. Muellbauer;|
|Faculty||Social Sciences Division - Economics Centre for the Study of African Economies|